Rugby league (NRL) picks

[RattleSnake316]

I thought I'd stop crashing Doogers thread, as I have the past few weeks, and post my plays in a seperate thread.

Very hard to pick this week, with players out with state of origin, so just have one game for the week.

Titans (-5.5) Titans at home are a very strong team, they've had the bye last week (so will be rested), will be looking for a win to make up for loss to knights 2 weeks ago, and continue to sit at top of ladder.

and bulldogs (granted have a stronger team that previous weeks) are just an average team this year.

Prediction: Titans 10+

 

[jurdo]

titans missing 2nd best player lafranchi, keeps me off them, he's huge workhorse

 

[RattleSnake316]

Disappointing result, but I'm happy with my bet. I'd do it a 1000 times over (had I not known the result)

Laranchi out didn't concern me. Titans arent a one man team, and Bailey was back which basically covered lafranchis absence.

Titans did what I thought they could, posting 16-0 within 20 minutes.

Just frustrating they didn't keep it up.

 

[RattleSnake316]

For the sake of 'transparent record keeping' I'll just stick to profit/loss for plays made in this thread ( Wont take into account winning plays I've posted in other threads)

Dont have time to write up my reasoning, so am just posting my plays:

Record: 0-1 (-$600)

Week 11

melbourne (-11.5) - $600 @ 1.87

titan (+4.5) - $600 @ 1.87

Roosters money line - $600 @ 1.69

 

[RattleSnake316]

Adding melbourne money line - $600 @ 1.25

 

[RattleSnake316]

Record: 3-2 (-$114)

Round 12 picks:

Broncos money line - $900 @ 1.45

Roosters money line - $900 @ 1.50

 

[RattleSnake316]

Record: 5-2 (+$741)

Round 13

No picks this week.

There was a couple of games I was interested in, but the odds are far to low / handicaps given are to high, to give me value, so I am not betting on them.

I'll have to disciplined, and just wait for some action next round

 

[RattleSnake316]

Round 14

Brisbane money line $600 @ $1.71

 

[RattleSnake316]

Record 5-3 (+$141)

Well hopefully I havent screwed up and made my bets too early, as I have in previous weeks (and lost out on getting better odds)

Or in last weeks case - betting on a team, that had even more injuries than I thought.

Round 15

Roosters money line $900 @ $1.61

Titans money line $900 @ $1.45

 

[RattleSnake316]

I hope no one is following my bets, because I am tanking. I couldn't be more disappointed in the titans performance last week. (I'm starting to realise they are not as good as team as I thought they were)

Anyway on to this week.

Record (6-4) (-$210)

Round 16

Sharks (+4.5) $600 @ $1.92

Before the odds came out, I picked sharks for a win. I think it's about a 50/50 game, but with a 4 1/2 start, I had to go with the sharks.

 

[RattleSnake316]

Record (7-4) (+$342)

I was all set to put my money on newcastle for the win against st george.

But after finding their best player, buderuss is out with injury, I can't take the risk.

No bets for me this week.

 

[chengkeke]

Nice win on the sharks last week snake!

 

[RattleSnake316]

Thanks Chengkeke. It was good win by the sharks.

With that said, I'm betting against them this week.

Round 18

Manly money line $600 @ $1.71

Am not quite sure why I'm taking manly, because when I first looked at the game, I thought it was a pretty close game.

I know the sharks defence is really strong, but I think manlys attack might just do enough to get over the top of them.

 

[chengkeke]

ditto that rattlesnake, I am already on manly 1-12 myself!
GL

 

[2Good2BTrue]

I am leaning towards Manly as well, still haven't made up my mind, perhaps Manly under 12.5 @ 3.25 that one is kinda tempting

 

[RattleSnake316]

A big win by manly last week. I wasn't expecting them to thrash the sharks.

Record (8-4) (+$768)

Round 19

I jumped in early this week, because I thought I'd lose good odds if I didn't (but as it turns out, it looks like I probably could have waited)


Roosters (-4) $600 @ $1.92

Roosters (-4) $300 @ $2


Odds went up to $2 on pinnacle, so put another $300 on. (I know I shouldn't have, I am breaking my money management rules )

Before odds came out, I said I'd take roosters at -8

I think they are specials and should win by 10 +

I know canbera are tough at home, but I think
roosters will be fired up after last weeks loss, and have a much better team than raiders

 

[RattleSnake316]

A terrible result with the roosters. I really thought they were good things.

Well I've had a rush of blood, and got melbourne (-11.5) $900 @ $1.79

I said I'd take melbourne -12, before odds came out, so thought I'd go with it, once the margin dropped.

Im being stupid and putting $900 instead of $600 on, to hopefully make up for the roosters loss

 

[RattleSnake316]

Ahh I feel better now the storm got up so easy. I should have just taken them at -12 and got the extra money.

( I actually said to my brother 2 weeks ago, before the dragons played canbera, that the storm would win big against the dragons, because I didn't rate the dragons. They have had such an easy run beating teams, who were missing key players.

... but after the rooster loss (it threw my confidence a bit, since I got it so wrong - I still can't get over the roosters, I really thought they'd turn up mentally strong to play.) I decided to buy a point down to 11.5

 

[RattleSnake316]

Record (9-5) (+$579)

Round 20

Melbourne (-8) $600 @ $1.98

There were quite a few games this week I thought were reasonable value, but decided to go for this one, because it had the least variables & unknowns.

Warriors have done well in the past few weeks, but have only beaten poor teams - dogs & cowboys.
The past few games, wouldn't have toughened the warriors up (ie. wouldn't have done them any favours), to play a classy side, like melbourne.

Add to that, melbourne will want this win, to take the chance of hitting the top of the table.

I think melbourne will win, I just hope my analysis is correct, and the storm run over the top of them and rack up some points

 

[RattleSnake316]

Arghh Melbourne lost.
I'm just embarrasing myself with posting my picks.

I'll continue to bet, but won't be posting my picks anymore.

Goodbye thread!